How ScorelyLab counts – a probability, not a result
The number is a probability before kickoff. It says how often a situation like this has happened before, not how this match ends.
Where the number comes from
The probability is calculated before kickoff by ScorelyLab's own AI model, from historical team, league and player results.
When a coupon row has no such model
On Stryktipset, Europatipset and Topptipset some rows have no ScorelyLab model. We take Svenska Spel's 1X2 odds, remove the margin, and shrink the numbers 80/20 toward the base 45/27/28. That blend is then mixed 75/25 with Svenska folket's stake split.
Value
Value is the model's 1X2 set against the bookmaker's implied probability. It is the gap between those two numbers, not a prompt to bet.
What is shown beside it
Form, head-to-head, the lineup, injuries, weather and the stadium are shown beside the number. They are not fed into a model we train. Pass counts and free-kick conversion are not calculated.
What 60% means
A 60% side loses about 4 times in 10. After the final whistle the call is settled on the public record, hit or miss.